Vulkanudbrud i Island truer op på Reykjanæshalvøen
5500 skælv på tre dage: Vulkanudbrud truer
Disse skælv er et advarselstegn, som indikerer en opbygning af det næste vulkanudbrud, siger forsker,
I juli i år gik en vulkan i området Litli-Hrútur på Reykjanes-halvøen – cirka 30 kilometer sydvest for Reykjavik – i udbrud. Det stod på i flere uger, og trods myndighedernes advarsler om at holde sig væk, valfartede tusinder til for at se og fotografere udbruddet.
En seismisk bølge med flere tusinde skælv har ramt halvøen Reykjanes i det sydvestlige Island i de seneste tre døgn.
Det kan være et varsel om et vulkanudbrud, siger landets meteorologiske kontor fredag.
– Der er registreret over 5500 små jordskælv, hedder det i en pressemeddelelse fra Islands Meteorologiske Kontor, IMO.
Island ligger mellem to tektoniske plader – den eurasiske og den nordamerikanske plade – som er blandt de største på planeten. Det betyder, at Island er et seismisk og vulkansk brændpunkt, da de to plader bevæger sig i hver sin retning.
Den eurasiske plade bevæger sig mod nordøst med omkring tre cm om året, mens den nordamerikanske plade flytter sig mod vest med omkring to cm om året. Afstanden mellem de to kontinenter øges dermed med fem cm om året.
Små skælv er et dagligt fænomen på Island, men det store antal på få dage er usædvanligt.
– Disse skælv er et advarselstegn, som indikerer, at vi er inde i en fase med opbygning af det næste vulkanudbrud, siger Matthew Roberts, som leder IMO’s forskningsafdeling.
Skælvene har deres oprindelse i op mod fem kilometers dybde, og de er udløst af lang tids akkumulering af magma, som har skabt et øget pres, der nu bevæger sig mod jordens overflade, pointerer Matthew Roberts, der venter et vulkanudbrud inden for 12 måneder.
Et jordskælv, der ramte halvøen Reykjanes onsdag morgen havde en styrke på 4,5, rapporteres det.
Dette jordskælv kunne mærkes i Grindavík, i hele regionen Suðurnes og også i området omkring hovedstaden, Reykjavik.
Få timer inden var et andet jordskælv, med en styrke på 3,9, blevet registreret i samme område.
Grindavík, som er en fiskerby med 2000 indbyggere, er den by, som ligger tættest på den seismiske aktivitet.
I juli i år gik en vulkan i området Litli-Hrútur på Reykjanes-halvøen – cirka 30 kilometer sydvest for Reykjavik – i udbrud. Det stod på i flere uger, men det satte ikke områdernes befolkning i fare.
Island oplevede i april 2010 et vulkanudbrud, der lammede store dele af flytrafikken i Europa, da vulkanen Eyjafjallajökull sendte askeskyer flere kilometer op i luften over et meget stort område.
“Coming close to an eruption”
Land has been rising fast near Svartsengi powerplant and the Blue Lagoon in recent days. mbl.is/Hákon Pálsson
“I’m scared that we’re coming close to an eruption,” says Þorvaldur Þórðarson, a professor of volcanology and rock science, when asked for his opinion on the morning’s earthquake on the Reykjanes peninsula.
He says that people should think in hours rather than days, both with regard to volcanic eruptions and evacuation plans.
Several large earthquakes have occurred since midnight. Just before 5 am, a magnitude 4.2 earthquake hit, and just after eight o’clock, a magnitude 4.3 earthquake hit. There are also more than ten earthquakes of more than three magnitudes.
Þorvaldur Þórðarson, professor of volcanology at the University of Iceland. mbl.is/Eggert Jóhannesson
The magma is at a smaller depth
“It seems to me that the magma has reached a smaller depth. It spreads from 4-5 kilometers to almost the surface,” Þórðarson says.
What are we talking about, a few hours or days?
“It could be either hours or days. I think we’re pretty close to this. The land continues to rise as everyone can see,” Þórðarson says.
According to Þórðarson, the earthquakes that have occurred today are spreading over a known volcanic fissure. “The earthquakes seem to follow these fissures north-south, or just east or the northern fissures,” he says.
Could start with a bang
Þórðarson said he was very worried that a volcanic eruption would start with a bang at this location because of the nature of the magma.
“The magma will definitely be a little rougher. It’s magma that has accumulated at a shallower depth. To reach up to that level, it needs to be more lighter in weight. So it’s expected to be less rich in magnesium. If it becomes as rough as we call it, it means it will have more magma gases,” he explains.
He says it is possible that then a fairly powerful magma eruption could form. “If there’s an eruption in these places, it’s a rather difficult situation and we can expect a relatively high productivity at the beginning of an eruption. Then maybe a so-called felsic lava field would form,” Þorvaldsson says.
He says that in such an eruption, the gushes that go up into the magma would hit the earth, merge into one liquid and flood away. “It can flood very quickly. You’re most worried about the beginning of the eruption.”
Encourages authorities to take measures
He says that the response time is not very long. The distances are short, no matter where the volcano would erupt in the area that is shaking. He says it is time to consider evacuation plans in the area.
“Of course, it’s only one scenario. But we can get a scenario that gives us very little time to react and I encourage people to keep that in mind and take measures accordingly. Don’t think about it as a matter of days, but think about it as a matter of hours,” Þórðarson says.
He says that it is known that magma felsic lava can pass very quickly, tens of kilometres per hour. “But I’m not saying for sure that it would happen,” he adds.
Emissions from a well in Krafla
When asked about the effects of geothermal energy in the area, Þórðarson says that he is not as worried about it. He thinks the safety of people in the area is what matters above all else.
“If we get an eruption there near the geothermal area in Svartsengi, it’s likely that the magma that comes up there will have some effect on the geothermal area. I understand that HS Orka hasn’t been seeing any changes in its wells, and that’s a good sign,” Þórðarson says, then reminisces about the Krafla fires.
“But this happened in Krafla. Then even a eruption came from the well,” he says.
He says there is more time to react when it comes to assessing the impact.
“If you get magma intrusion flow at a relatively shallow depth, as seems to be happening here, it takes some time for the heat in the magma to move into the geothermal-system with geothermal-conductivity. But once it starts, it can increase the temperature in the geothermal-system.”